BY MOHAMMAD TARIQUE SALEEM
The comparison of crude oil exports between the first 23 days of February and March 2026 reveals a dramatic and uneven disruption across global energy markets, driven primarily by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The most striking trend is the sharp decline in exports from Gulf producers. Kuwait (-72%), Saudi Arabia (-52%), and both northern (-49%) and southern Iraq (-76%) show severe contractions. This collapse aligns with the near shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint through which a significant portion of global oil flows.
According to the International Energy Agency, oil flows through the strait have dropped from around 20 million barrels per day to almost negligible levels due to ongoing conflict, forcing countries to cut production and halt exports. These Gulf economies are structurally dependent on Hormuz for exports, and while some, like Saudi Arabia, have limited alternative routes such as the East-West pipeline, these are insufficient to fully offset losses. As a result, production cuts and storage bottlenecks have compounded export declines.
In contrast, Iran (+4%) has managed to maintain, and slightly increase, exports. This reflects its unique geopolitical position. Despite being central to the conflict, Iran appears to be selectively allowing oil shipments, particularly toward key buyers, leveraging the crisis to sustain revenue and strategic influence. Similarly, Oman (+7%), which has access to ports outside the Strait of Hormuz, has benefited from relative logistical flexibility.
Russia (+14%) stands out as another major gainer. Despite facing infrastructure disruptions and sanctions, Russia has redirected exports toward Asian markets, including India and China, capitalizing on supply shortages from the Middle East. This shift highlights the growing importance of non-OPEC supply in stabilizing global markets during crises.
Overall, the data reflects a fragmented oil market under stress. Traditional Gulf exporters are experiencing historic declines due to geographic vulnerability, while geopolitically agile or geographically advantaged producers are increasing their market share. This redistribution of supply underscores a broader structural shift: global energy security is increasingly influenced not just by production capacity, but by logistics, geopolitics, and access to alternative trade routes.
